EUR/USD began the week on a positive note, rising 0.2% within a narrow 1.0266-1.0292 range as the dollar eased and Asian equity markets advanced. Traders are bracing for a volatile week, with German PPI and an ECB policy debate setting the stage for eurozone developments, while U.S. markets focus on President Trump’s inauguration and the potential impact of over 200 anticipated executive actions. ECB official Isabel Schnabel’s comments on the pace of rate cuts have added complexity to the euro’s outlook, as the ECB navigates monetary policy challenges.

Technically, EUR/USD remains trapped within a consolidative pattern. Resistance is seen at 1.0354, last Wednesday’s high, and 1.0437, the January 6 peak for 2025. Support levels include 1.0195, a critical Fibonacci retracement, and 1.0177, the 2025 base. Neutral daily momentum studies and easing Bollinger bands suggest limited directional bias, while coiling moving averages indicate consolidation. Bulls need a decisive close above 1.0437 to establish upward momentum, while bears will aim to push the pair below 1.0195 to target deeper support levels.

Key catalysts for EUR/USD this week include U.S. and eurozone data and Trump’s policy agenda. Option expiries at 1.0250 (€657 million) and 1.0300 (€2.255 billion) could influence near-term price action. Bulls will need favorable economic data or dovish Fed sentiment to challenge resistance levels, while weak eurozone data or aggressive U.S. policy shifts could send EUR/USD lower. For now, the pair remains in a holding pattern, with upcoming events likely to determine its next move.